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Eight people worked for the New York Yankees baseball team, including one player has been positive For Covid-19 — and all of them were vaccinated against the virus a little over a month ago.
That sounds bad. But don’t panic. (Or, if you’re a fan of the Red Sox, stop smiling.) These “progress” cases don’t mean that vaccines don’t work or that some nasty new vaccine variants have made a very wide line between the Yankees. They do mean, however, that it may be quite early to remove these masks.
Manager Aaron Boone announced seven cases among the team’s staff in the press on Wednesday; on Thursday the Yankees also put a stop to Gleyber Torres Covid-19 on the wounded list“He got the disease in December, got vaccinated and tested positive again.” Six of the seven employee cases were, thankfully, symptomatic. The reason someone heard about them was that the team regularly tests staff and players.
That’s the curve ball. “There are few cases of progress, many of which will be asymptomatic,” says Ana Isabel Bento, an environmental disease at Indiana University Public Health School. “And most people don’t have to take a test unless they’re having symptoms.”
So it is impossible to know how strange this group appearance is, as no one knows the denominator, the number of people who are still infected but never get sick after being vaccinated. The Yankees received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine on April 7th. They have enough time to fully rotate their immune systems against the virus. But a vaccine is not perfect. “Johnson and Johnson’s was 100 percent effective in preventing hospitalization and death, 85 percent effective in severe cases, and 72 percent effective in preventing moderate illness in various trials,” says Bento. “So if the infected people get infected, we expect them to be asymptomatic.”
In an effort to overcome the raging pandemic, most Covid vaccines were tested against serious illnesses and the ability to prevent death. Everyone does that very well. “But to find out if this outbreak is consistent with the effectiveness of the vaccine, as J&J reported against the infection, you want to compare rates,” says Sarah Cobey, an epidemiologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago.
What can we do, almost. In vaccine trials, Johnson & Johnson researchers tested some patients for asymptomatic infection. Did those who tested negative test? before then, has the research tested positive for anti-virus antibodies, whether sick or not? About two and a half months after vaccination, 2.8% of people who did not get vaccinated were asymptomatic. But also 0.7% did get vaccinated. That is efficiency, a reducing relative risk, about 74.2 percent (with a fairly wide range of confidence, indicating that statistical power here is such). In one prepress published earlier in the week (so it has yet to be reviewed), J&J studied the actual results of the vaccine and independent researchers shot and found in two weeks that only three of the 1,779 people with the Covid-19 virus vaccine are affected by 128 out of 17,744 people who have not been vaccinated. The rate is very good, but not 100 percent.
The problem is, the Yankees haven’t said how many people were included in general — the team spokesman didn’t answer my questions — so it’s impossible to know if the eight advances are extra bad cases or similar to the course (unless you apologize for another sports metaphor).
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